Giornata di profitto

Giornata di "risk reversal" o "take profit" per i mercati azionari. In Europa, Eurostoxx 50 a -1.67%, FSTE MIB a -3.71% e Dax a -1.3%. Negli Stati Uniti l'S&P 500 fa poco meglio (+0.91%), mentre il Brasile sovraperforma (-0.26%). Rimane sotto stress la periferia dell'area euro, con i bond in allargamento su Spagna, Italia, Grecia e Portogallo (e anche il Belgio soffre). Ù

Sulle banche c'è stata un'inversione di tendenza molto brusca, con le italiane tra le peggiori del settore (Unicredit -12% e ISP -8%). Anche JPM sta facendo male (-6.3%), forse trascinando il mercato overall dopo aver annunciato i risultati prima dell'apertura. Vi quoto un breve commento di un sales trader: "JPM was the main catalyst watched globally today, and disappointed. An overall good EPS number was actually helped by some significant "DVA gains" (debt-valuation adjustment gain) whereas core IB was the main miss vs consensus". E il read-through di quest'ultima annotazione è negativo.

Tornando all'Europa, vorrei condividere con voi un'attualissima nota degli strategist di Credit Suisse a proposito dell'Italia: ve la quoto interamente perché offre ottimi spunti di riflessione.

"Yesterday, in a potential turning point for Italian Politics, Berlusconi’s Government was defeated in a vote over a technical document concerning the 2010 budget. It was noteworthy due to the absence of several key MPs from the ruling coalition. We see a clear intention to threaten the government with a political crisis. Indeed, the fringe of Berlusconi’s ruling party which is close to one of the absent MPs - Claudio Scajola - is already thought to be in talks with other MPs outside the party about a potential alternative government. Today Berlusconi addressed an Italian Parliament session which has been deserted by all except one of the opposition parties, in an extreme form of protest (dubbed the "Aventine Secession"). Tomorrow he will face a vote of confidence whose potential outcome looks increasingly uncertain. He had previously affirmed that there would likely be early elections in 2012. Even if the government were to survive the upcoming confidence vote, it is now increasingly unlikely to remain in power beyond Q1 next year. We see two potential scenarios which could unfold as a consequence of political crisis in Italy:

1) Early Elections. Based on current polls, a hypothetical center-left coalition led by PD – the major opposition party – would probably win the elections. However, there is no agreement at present among opposition parties to form a coalition or to draft a joint political program.

2) A broad coalition government, likely not headed by Berlusconi. This option has been strongly opposed by Berlusconi and some smaller opposition parties. It is currently backed by the PD as well as Fini’s “center” alliance. Support from Scajola’s fringe of “rebel” MPs for an alternative government would probably be pivotal in such a scenario - which is gradually becoming the most likely outcome.

The rise of a coalition government could actually improve Italy's ability to respond to the crisis. The alternative government would be supported by parliamentary groups which have in a number of occasions openly stressed the inadequacy of the measures taken so far and the need for comprehensive reforms. In the meantime - the shortcomings of the fiscal package approved by Berlusconi's government are becoming increasingly clear. The corrective measures will balance the budget in the next 2 1/2 years, under the assumption of an average GDP growth of about 0.85% per year. This compares to an IMF forecast of 0.58%. However, heavy fiscal consolidation and disappointing Euroland growth data are making a recession scenario increasingly likely. Should a scenario of weaker (or even negative) growth materialize - or - were the measures to fail produce the effects the government anticipates, Italy would almost certainly need to approve additional austerity measures in order to meet its targets. A simple simulation shows how sensitive the government's budget projection are to a revision of growth forecasts. Moreover - the fiscal package approved during the summer weights to a disproportionate extent on the revenue side of the government's budget - the one which is most likely to affect growth. While the governmet had previously committed to improving efficiency on the expenditure side, approximately 66% of the improvement in net lending is owed to higher revenues. However - notes the Italian Economics blog "laVoce.info" - that number could rise to as much as 78% were local administrations to offset cuts of transfers from the central government (which make up 12% of the package) by hiking municipal taxes."

Insomma, abbiamo ancora molto da vedere sul fronte "casalingo"…